Archive for the ‘hyperinflation’ Category
Tuesday, October 21st, 2008
I hear economists talking about the “road to recovery” includes another stimulus package. All the stimulus package has shown us is that when store owners and gas stations know that the checks are coming, the prices of goods and services go up!
The recent price declines in gas and tires and motor oil are relative, since fewer people can actually afford to buy these things.
We have a contradiction.
We are experiencing hyperinflation on one hand with the Federal Reserve monetizing the debt.
We are also experience stagflation as lower prices are irrelevant due to the higher jobless rate.
Could it be because everyone is confused?
Posted in banks, economy, hyperinflation, prices, stagflation | No Comments »
Monday, October 13th, 2008
The Federal Reserve has promised an unlimited amount of US dollars to Europe Central Banks. Uhh. Unlimited-unlimited? As in hyperinflation-unlimited?
Bond market closed today.
Commodities like gold and silver did not trade today.
On Columbus Day. So, what do you think is going to happen when the market opens tomorrow?
Stock market went up 900+ point increase. Wait, that’s not good. No one can short the markets. So there are no short-covering rallies. Wait, you mean that wasn’t a good day on Wall Street? You’re right.
Dead Cat Bounce!!
Run.
Posted in columbus day, dead cat bounce, hyperinflation, wall street | No Comments »
Saturday, March 1st, 2008
Factories are shutting down all over Southern China. With this development may come an upheaval of Hong Konger amenities and family support services.
Discussing these issues with colleagues has left me rather downtrodden, but this is the reality of the “bubble”.
Well – more like a game of musical chairs. The migrants workers in China had perspective, because they are keen to see scarcity in the presence of temporary excess. The understood that while
* Start the music. * (something by Vivaldi)
When engineering jobs were shipped to China from America, anyone in Southern China could open a factory and hire workers. This is what many of the Hong Kongers did.
With economic investment agreements, such as CEPA, the future was supposed to be a dream of mercantilism. However, as more Hong Kongers lost good-paying jobs, many were forced to take lower paying jobs to feed their families.
They sought refuge and comfort in the Hong Kong stock market, where you could roll dice and pick stocks and become rich overnight or at least pay the bills. But, for many that did not last for long.
Then, there was the investment real estate boom in Hong Kong, then there was … wait…
* The music stopped. *
Silence.
Uh-oh, not enough chairs.
Hong Kongers, on the other hand, have a short memory and were not ready for the music to stop. Several farmers are saving their pigs from market to take a loss upfront, but they know will have food for remainder of the year.
Let me re-phrase this so you can completely understand what I am talking about: Chinese migrant workers are not returning to the factories. Expect delays on shipping for anything made in China.
Posted in china, economy, from dual, hong kong, hyperinflation, inflation, inflation shock, migrant workers, new economy, shipping | No Comments »
Wednesday, February 27th, 2008
We are now at Four Loaves of Bread Per Gallon.
Just as you may owe more on your house than it is worth, you may start experiencing diminishing returns from driving to work everyday.
Feed your car? or Feed your family?
What say you?
Posted in from dual, gasoline, hyperinflation, inflation, loaves of bread per gallon | No Comments »
Sunday, February 24th, 2008
I already warned you about this problem in Decemeber.
Before you can understand what I am talking about, let us look at Mark Cuban. Why am I picking on him? Well, Mark Cuban is a smart, intelligent business guy. He started a company based on someone else’s idea and cashed out quickly. I didn’t say he was a geek. I said he was smart. Hold on to that thought.
Then, the dot-com collapse arrived. He looked doubly smart. Everyone else thought they could ride their mule to untold wealth. Well, all of their mules died. 
Mark Cuban shot his mule early and sold it for glue.
What’s my point?
Exit strategy. Everyone who executes their exit strategy before March 1 of this year is OK.
The rest of you? Find bidders quickly because the venture capitals firms cannot go to the private equity firms or banks for bailouts. Their industry is filled with risk! As municipal bonds become JUNK, those firms may not be able to make those tax-free investments liquid. No cash on hand?
No deposit. No return.
Then you tell me, “Oh, I’ll just use my American Express card for quick purchases” …
Then I say, “bwahahahahahahaahahhah!” …
“sure, if the account is still open after March 31″
Posted in bank failure, from dual, hyperinflation, venture capital, web 2.0 failure | No Comments »
Tuesday, January 15th, 2008
I have talked earlier about price of food and gas.
We are now approaching Three Loaves of Bread Per Gallon.
The unit loaves of bread per gallon started as a joke. It is now an economic indicator for me. It is a currency-neutral calculation and has helped me predict market direction very well.
Posted in from dual, gasoline, hyperinflation, inflation, loaves of bread per gallon | No Comments »
Friday, December 28th, 2007
Yeah. I said it.
Private Equity Firms. Mutual Funds. Hedge Funds. Federal Reserve. You can call them whatever you want. They are all banking cartels.
I just read this post on Austrian Economists.
http://austrianeconomists.typepad.com/weblog/2007/12/did-the-gold-st.html
Mismanagement Gold Standard Helped Cause the Great Depression?
Yes, But the Root Cause Was Antitrust.
History also remembers that the Great Depression was an antitrust problem that started by real estate crisis in Florida and set off a chain reaction nationwide. Lack of antitrust legislation and the era of the robber barons produced a class of Americans that possessed 90% of the countries wealth.
Upon accumulation of all this wealth, the robber barons exercised conventional wisdom abject stupidity in the management of commodities such as gold, silver, oil …. well, just pick any commodity, and chances are they mismanaged it. ^_^ The few families who got out of the market early survived. You may have heard of some of them: Rockefeller, Vanderbilt.
What is all this antitrust nonsense I am talking about?
It may be hard to remember, but in the U.S. there were actually laws (antitrust laws) that clearly stated that your bank could not do your taxes, your tax preparer could not provide your insurance, and your insurance company could not manage your mutual funds.
Most of those laws were repealed and now you are seeing the results.
Sadly, per Brooding Issue #1 in my previous post, I see massive bank failures ahead.
It appears that the giant private equity firms (who bought real estate at the top of the market) will fall and come crashing down crushing all the little people underneath. (Just like in Florida in 1929).
Currency Collapse May Be Eminent
If we are lucky, we will experience an orderly currency collapse. However, two smart guys named Bill Gates and Warren Buffet fear a disorderly fall of U.S. dollar, which will turn the Great Depression into a discussion about happier times.
… つづく
Posted in bank failures, brooding, credit crisis, economy, food shortage, from dual, great depression, hkma, hyperinflation, shortage | 3 Comments »
Friday, December 21st, 2007
Brooding about the following thoughts:
- The U.S. banks no longer trust each other.
- 500 Billion dollar loan from Europe doesn’t scratch the surface of what the banks really need.
- People are not ready for worldwide shortages of food and supplies.
- Hyperinflation is rampant, as the cost of driving is approaching THREE loaves of bread per gallon.
- The currency markets are about to experience the greatest shock since the Great Depression.
- There is almost no liquidity in the market.
- HKMA continues to oversell Hong Kong Dollars to defend the peg with the U.S. Dollar.
- The credit derivatives market is filled with analysts who do not know how to use a ledger
- Upper management of Fortune 500 companies is packed with individuals who never experienced sacrifice, let alone even read about the Great Depression, its causes or its aftermath.
- Insurance companies are worried about widespread arson; they announced this “concern” as a “risk management tactic”.
- Hypothecating property in business will no longer be accepted.
- Charitable foundations may fold without inflation hedges firmly in place
- The currency will change overnight and will catch world markets by surprise
- Gold will reach insane historical highs only to be stalled by the fact that you can’t eat gold
- Sections of the Internet may collapse due to lack of funding for infrastructure (power and water), in which case, Gopher and Archie may become popular again.
All these figments of my imagination. right?
…
EDIT: Probably. It’s just a bad dream.
I’ll wake up soon. I’m not worried at all. No, really.
Posted in bank failures, brooding, credit crisis, economy, food shortage, from dual, gasoline, great depression, hkma, hyperinflation, inflation, loaves of bread per gallon, shortage | 4 Comments »
Sunday, November 4th, 2007
Earlier this year, I posted: A Loaf of Bread Per Gallon of Gasoline.
I underestimated the problem. The price of gasoline will exceed two loaves of bread soon. This is pitiful, but expected, as the cost of a barrel of oil starts its rise past $100.
So, I need to re-pose the question:
Are you willing to drive in your car to and from work for TWO LOAVES OF BREAD PER GALLON OR MORE?
Then you may need to ask yourself:
Is it more important to work? or is it more important to eat?
… but we are not there yet…
Posted in from dual, gasoline, hyperinflation, inflation, loaves of bread per gallon | 1 Comment »
Tuesday, May 22nd, 2007
This week, the national average for the price of gasoline was about $3.22 per gallon. That is about the price of a loaf of bread.
Hmm. Oh, dear.
So, here’s the conundrum:
Are you willing to drive in your car to and from work for a loaf of bread per gallon?
Furthermore, you will be able to get change for a loaf of bread when you go to buy half a gallon of gas? Well, simply put, if you cannot afford to go to work or 50% of your work day is spent paying for your transportation then you have a problem, huh.
This is the part of the post where I provide a solution or some idea to mitigate this issue.
** Clicks Publish, then runs away **
Posted in from dual, gasoline, hyperinflation, inflation, loaves of bread per gallon | 2 Comments »
